What Is Fair Value?

Fair value of a stock is its estimated true worth based on various factors including earnings, assets and market conditions. It represents the price at which a stock should ideally trade, reflecting its intrinsic value. Investors compare the fair value to the current market price to determine if a stock is overvalued or undervalued. If the market price exceeds the fair value the stock may be considered overvalued if it’s below it may be seen as undervalued. In this blog we will cover what is fair value of a stock and fair value meaning and related questions.

What is Fair Value?

Fair value refers to the price at which an asset or product would be sold in the market if both the buyer and the seller are willing to agree on a price. To determine fair value several factors are considered including recent sales of similar assets, expected earnings from the asset and the cost to replace it. This concept applies to various types of assets such as stocks, properties or products sold in any market, whether traditional, online or capital markets. It's important to note that fair value isn’t the price you would receive if you had to quickly sell the asset. Instead it represents a price that is fair to both the buyer and the seller, ensuring that neither party incurs a loss.

For instance if Company A sells its stocks to Company B at ₹300 per share and Company B believes that it could sell the stock at ₹500 per share the transaction is considered fair value because both parties benefit from the sale at the agreed upon price. It fosters transparency and reliability in financial reporting, profiting all stakeholders.
 

Understanding Fair Value of Stocks

Fair value in stocks is an estimate of the true worth of an asset or liability based on its current market conditions. It reflects the price that two willing parties would agree upon in an open market. This concept is important in finance and accounting as it helps ensure transparency and accuracy in financial reporting.

Fair value considers various factors including market prices, comparable assets and the specific conditions affecting the asset or liability. For instance the fair value of real estate might depend on recent sales of similar properties while a stock's fair value might be influenced by the company’s earnings and growth potential.

Understanding fair value is essential for investors as it aids in making informed decisions about buying, selling or holding assets. It helps assess whether an asset is undervalued or overvalued, guiding strategic investment choices.
 

Calculating Fair Value

You can determine a stock's fair value using several methods including the Dividend Discount Model, Discounted Cash Flow and Comparable Companies Analysis. Here we'll briefly explore the Discounted Cash Flow method.

DCF model is a useful method for estimating a stock's value by considering the time value of money. It calculates how much future cash flows from a company are worth today by discounting them to their present value. This helps investors determine what the stock should be worth right now.

However DCF model is sensitive to the assumptions used like the expected cash flows and the discount rate. Even small changes in these assumptions can lead to big differences in the estimated stock value. So investors need to do their homework and be cautious when using the DCF model.
 

Fair Value Formula in DCF

Step 1: Find present value of the future cash flows of next few years.

Formula for present value using DCF =  Σ [CFt / (1 + r)^t]

Where:

Σ -  Sum of all future cash flows.

CFt - Cash flow expected in a specific year (t).

r - The discount rate used to account for the time value of money.

t - Year for which the cash flow is being calculated.

Step 2: Calculate the terminal value of the enterprise. Terminal value represents the value of all expected future cash flows beyond the forecast period typically between 3 to 5 years.

The formula for terminal value is:  

Terminal value = {CFt * (1 + terminal growth rate)}/(discount rate – terminal growth rate)

Terminal growth rate reflects the company's expected perpetual growth. After calculating the terminal value apply the present value formula to determine its value today.

Step 3: Combine the present values of forecasted cash flows and the terminal value to find the enterprise value. To get the equity value subtract the debt from the enterprise value.

Fair Value vs Carrying Value

Carrying value also known as book value, is the worth of an asset as shown on a company’s balance sheet. It's calculated by taking the original cost of the asset and then subtracting any depreciation, amortization or impairments that have occurred over time. Essentially it's the remaining value of the asset after accounting for wear and tear or any decrease in value.

Carrying value = Cost of the asset – Depreciation and amortization

Here's the simplified version of the comparison between Fair Value and Carrying Value in table form:
 

Fair Value vs Market Value

Fair value and market value both describe the value of a stock but they mean different things.

Market value is the price at which a stock is currently trading on the stock market influenced by factors like supply, demand and investor behavior. It can change often and doesn’t always reflect the stock’s actual worth.

Fair value is an estimate of what a stock is truly worth based on the company’s financial performance and future potential. This value is calculated using tools like discounted cash flow analysis. Investors often look for stocks where the market value is lower than the fair value as this could mean the stock is undervalued and may be a good buying opportunity.
 

Advantages of Fair Value Accounting

Fair value accounting offers several benefits to investors, analysts and companies by providing a clearer picture of financial health and risks. Let’s break it down.

1. Fair value accounting reflects the actual market conditions helping to give a more accurate and honest view of a company’s financial status. Instead of using outdated or unclear figures it shows the current value based on the market making it easier for everyone to understand what's happening financially.

2. This method helps investors evaluate the potential risks involved in their investments more effectively. By using discount rates to estimate future cash flows investors can have a clearer picture of what their investments might be worth in the future which helps in making better decisions.

3. Fair value accounting isn’t just limited to stocks. It can be applied to other assets like houses or bonds making it a flexible method for valuing different types of investments.

4. Whether the market is rising or falling knowing the real value of a stock helps keep emotions in check. When stock prices fluctuate wildly, fair value accounting provides a balanced view allowing investors to make more informed decisions based on intrinsic value not just market hype or panic.

Factors Affecting Fair Value

1. The higher a company's earnings and future growth potential the higher its fair value. Strong financial performance increases the worth of the stock.

2. Investor’s moods and overall market conditions can cause a stock's market price to go up or down. However these swings may not always match the stock’s true value based on its actual earnings potential.

3. Things like interest rates, changes in regulations, advancements in technology and global events can all affect a company’s future earnings and risks. These external factors can impact how we calculate fair value.

4. If a company has more risk due to unstable earnings, high levels of debt or low cash reserves it could lower its fair value. In such cases investors may use higher discount rates to adjust for the increased risk, reducing the stock's fair value accordingly.

Examples of Fair Value in Practice

Assuming that ABC stock is currently trading at INR 1,895.12 with a 2% interest charge on the sale and a futures contract that expires in 30 days, an investor receives 4.3 dividend points. Here’s how one can calculate the fair value of the stock.

Given:
Cash = INR 1,895.12
r = 2%
x = 30 days
Dividends = 4.3 points

Fair Value = Cash [1 + r (x/360)] – Dividends

= 1895.12 [1 + 0.02 (30/360)] – 4.3 = INR 1,898.28

Therefore, based on the calculation, the fair value of ABC stock is INR 1,898.28.
 

Conclusion

Fair value is the price at which informed buyers and sellers agree to trade an asset or liability under normal circumstances. It depends on several factors such as current market conditions, overall economy, specifics about the company, legal and regulatory considerations and the level of risk involved. To find fair value one must analyze and use good judgment carefully.