WTI Crude Oil Forecasted to Stay Below $60 in H2 2025 Amid Trump Tariff Concerns, Analysts Say

According to a research note by analysts at JP Morgan, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is anticipated to stay under $60 a barrel during the second half of calendar year 2025, given the renewed U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump's administration and a gloomy global demand outlook, analysts explained.

As of April 15, the WTI crude is trading at about $61 per barrel, continuing a nearly 15% downward swing in price since early April and visiting its lowest levels since April 2021. The drop follows the imposition of 104% tariffs on imported goods from China, which triggered retaliation from Beijing and heightened fears of the global economy plunging into recession.

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Analysts' Response

Although crude oil prices may inch up towards $65 due to a temporary 90-day reprieve on reciprocating tariffs, prices are expected to remain in a range of $58 to $65 per barrel for the near term, as opined by analysts from Business Standard.

Like other agencies, JP Morgan brought down its oil price forecasts, lowering its expectations for WTI to $62 per barrel in 2025 from $73 previously. Increased supply by OPEC+ and weakness in global demand are given as the reasons for this downward revision, leading the bank to expect a surplus that will only drag prices further south.

Problems in the US Oil Industry

The U.S. oil industry at the moment bears two key problems: steep import tariffs and dwindling demand from customers thanks to trade policies by President Trump. Such have inflicted losses in costs on essential inputs, including steel, yet again hurrying all slowdowns on drilling and infrastructure expansion while slowing U.S. oil production growth.

EIA reported that Brent crude oil prices are estimated to average $68 per barrel in 2025 and then fall to an average of $61 per barrel during 2026. This scenario considers expectations of growing, post-mid-2025, available global oil inventories since OPEC+ would remove restrictions on production and non-OPEC would increase; however, amid slowing oil demand growth.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the possibility for WTI crude oil prices to remain subdued in the second half of 2025 is supported by renewed trade tensions, increased global oil supply, and weakening demand, and analysts are projecting prices will stay below $60 per barrel during that period.