Gold Prices Soar Amid Middle East Chaos and US Rate Cut Buzz: What’s Next? 

Gold prices saw a slight increase on Thursday, influenced by ongoing tensions in the Middle East and expectations of US interest rate cuts. Spot gold rose by 0.3% to $2,389.42 per ounce, whereas US gold futures declined by 0.2% to $2,428.40. 
 
Geopolitical uncertainties, especially in the Middle East, and decreasing US Treasury yields, which make gold more appealing as a non-yielding asset, are key factors supporting gold prices. Concerns have been heightened by recent statements from Iran and regional tensions following the killing of a Hamas leader. 
 
The US dollar also weakened, and major brokerages like JP Morgan and Citigroup predict a potential 50 basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by weaker-than-expected US employment data for July. 
 
Attention is now on the forthcoming US jobless claims data and a speech by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin. Analysts anticipate gold prices to stabilize around $2,350 in the short term, with possible increases toward $2,500 later this year. 

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In other precious metals, spot silver climbed nearly 1% to $26.84 per ounce, platinum edged up by 0.1% to $920.40, and palladium rose by 1.2% to $892.75. Impala Platinum reported $1 billion in impairments due to lower metal prices. 
 
On Thursday, domestic yellow metal futures traded flat with a slight negative bias, while white metal futures remained flat with a positive bias after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repo rate unchanged. Market sentiment stayed fragile due to concerns about an economic slowdown in China and a possible US recession. 
 
At around 3:00 pm, MCX gold futures (Oct 4) were steady at ₹68,970 per 10 grams. Meanwhile, MCX silver futures (Sept 5) were unchanged at ₹78,856 per kilogram. 
 
Neha Qureshi, Senior Technical and Derivative Research Analyst at Anand Rathi Commodities & Currencies, recommended selling gold October futures on a rise at ₹68,900, setting a stop loss at ₹69,500 and a target price of ₹68,300. For silver September futures, she suggested selling on a rise at ₹78,800, with a stop loss of ₹79,800 
and a target of ₹76,800. 
 
Meanwhile, COMEX gold in the international market remained subdued with a positive bias at $2,432.6 per ounce. 
 
"Traders are now looking at the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US for some momentum later today. However, the major focus remains on the US consumer inflation figures due for release next Wednesday, which are expected to show a disinflationary trend for July," said Neha Qureshi.