Weekly Outlook on Gold- 27 Jan 2023

Gold prices witnessed some profit bookings on higher levels as the dollar firmed, following better-than-expected U.S. economic growth figures. However, hope of a slower rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve kept bullion on track for its fifth straight weekly gain.

Weekly Commodity & Currency Outlook:

Traders are also waiting for U.S. inflation data due later in the day to gauge the rate hike stance. The U.S. economy maintained a strong pace of growth in the fourth quarter as consumers boosted spending on goods. Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 186,000 for the week ended Jan.21st, the lowest figure since April 2022.

COMEX gold prices opened on a positive note and continued the upside move initially in three trading sessions of the week. On Thursday session, prices witnessed a further correction from the weekly high of $1949.70 and traded lower at $1925 on Friday session. On the daily chart, the gold has formed a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern and taken resistance at Upper Bollinger Band formation. A momentum indicator, RSI & Stochastic, has shown negative crossover on the daily scale that suggests a bearish move for the near term. On the downside, gold has support at around $1900 and $1875 levels, while on the upside; it may find resistance at $1950 and $1965 levels.

On the MCX, the gold price made a high of Rs. 57125 levels on Tuesday session, after that showed some profit booking in the next trading day and traded at Rs. 56650 levels on last day of the week. The volume has declined in the last two sessions and RSI has retreated from the overbought zone with a negative crossover on the daily chart. On a weekly timeframe, the price has been forming like a Shooting Star candlestick that indicates bearishness on the counter.

Hence, we are expecting a sideways to bearish move in the gold, if the price sustains below 56500 levels. One can look for a short position for the downside support of Rs. 56000 & Rs. 55700. On the higher side, Rs. 57200 & Rs. 57800 will act as resistance zones for the prices.    

Important Key Levels: