Weekly Outlook on Copper- 21 Jul 2023

LME Copper prices were raised on Thursday, after four days of losing streak, on the hope that top metal consumer China would introduce additional support for its troubled real estate sector. Copper output in Chile sank 14% annually in May, among the latest signs that declines in global supply foreshadow an incoming shortfall amid the metal’s essential use in the world’s transition to sustainable energy sources. 

Three months, copper on the London exchange gained 1.5% to $8556 per metric ton. Overall, the metal uses in the construction and power sector have been hit this year due to disappointment over the lack of economic stimulus from the Chinese government. Now, the market participants are focusing on an upcoming Fed meeting next week and betting that this will be the final rate hike by the Fed’s for the year, with rates set to remain at 5.5%. However, any potential pause in the rate hike cycle bodes well for metal prices further.
    
Technically, LME copper prices were slightly lower on Friday's session but hovering above the prior day lows and 50-days SMA support. On the lower side, it has support around 8390/8320 levels while, on the upside, it may find resistance around 8670 levels.

On the COMEX division, the price has turned up from the immediate support of $3.76 and set a day high at $3.88 mark on Thursday. On the downside, the support comes around $3.72 and $3.65 levels, while resistance is at $3.92 and $4.03.  

On the MCX front, copper took resistance at the Upper Bollinger Band formation and 100-days SMA, hence turned back from there and traded lower on Friday session. A momentum indicator, RSI has witnessed negative crossover on the daily timeframe. On a weekly scale, the price has been trading near to the Trendline support zone.

On the MCX front, copper took resistance at the Upper Bollinger Band formation and 100-days SMA, hence turned back from there and traded lower on Friday session. A momentum indicator, RSI has witnessed negative crossover on the daily timeframe. On a weekly scale, the price has been trading near to the Trendline support zone.

Hence, we are expecting a sideways to bullish move in copper for the coming week. So one can look for buying on dips around 720/718 levels with a stop loss of 710, for a potential target of 732/735. One should also keep an eye on China's stimulus measures and further economic development.

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