Weekly Market Outlook for 11th July to 15th July

The markets had a swift up move this week and the Nifty reclaimed the 16000 mark at the start of the week. The index witnessed some intraday hiccups, but it crept higher gradually and ended the week above 16200 with weekly gains of almost 3 percent.

Nifty Today:

Nifty has formed a ‘Higher Top Higher Bottom’ structure on the daily chart from the recent swing low of 15180. This move has been retracing the previous corrective phase and 61.8 percent retracement of the previous correction from 16800 to 15180 was around 16178. It was the crucial hurdle in this pullback and the index has even surpassed the same. This indicates that the market will be showing a bigger pullback to retrace the entire correction from 18115 (April 2022 high) to the recent swing low of 15184.The 50 percent retracement of this correction is seen around 16650 while the ‘200-day EMA’ hurdle is around 16550.

Hence, we expect the Nifty to continue its upmove in the short term towards 16550-16650. On the flipside, the support base is shifting higher with the index upmove and the support has now shifted to 16000-15900 range. Even the option writers have built positions in 16000 strike which hints this to be an important support. In the coming week, small corrections for one to two sessions cannot be ruled out but any such corrections should be used as a buying opportunity.

                                    Positive momentum continues in index, could approach 16500

Amongst sectoral indices, the Banking index has continued its outperformance and has taken the leadership along with the FMCG stocks to lift the markets higher.  The structure for both these sectors remains positive and hence, traders should look for trading opportunities within these sectors. The Midcap 100 index could approach its ‘200 DEMA’ resistance which is around 28270 and hence, stock specific opportunities can be picked there too.