Markets are responding to Global market moves

Nifty started trading for the week on a flat note and witnessed up move to surpass 17500 in the first half an hour on Monday. However, that pullback move did not last long as the index witnessed selling pressure gradually which continued throughout the day and it ended the day around 17150 with a loss of about one and a half percent.

The positive opening witnessed selling interest as the market participants seemed pessimist amidst the negative news flows in the U.S. The Nifty breached its previous swing low support while the India VIX rose 20%. The negative news on the U.S. had a negative sentimental impact on our markets too and foreign institutional investors have increased their short positions in the index futures. The recent pullback moves towards 18134 in early February and again from the low of 17250 to 17800 in the first week of March were mainly due to short covering and no fresh long formations seen. However, the correction in the market has seen a build-up of fresh short positions which is a negative sign. FII’s have only 16 percent of their positions in the index futures segment on the long side. But our markets have now been reacting more to the global markets' moves and news flows and hence, the momentum in the global indices will continue to dictate the near-term direction. Nifty has breached its swing lows of the month of February while the Bank Nifty index is much close to doing the same. Now the short-term momentum remains negative but Nifty has support in the range of 16900-17100. The index could try to form a support base in this range as the other factors which the market participants were worried about recently; such as the US 10-year Bond Yield and the Dollar Index have cooled off which is good for equities. 

In the options segment, 17000 put options have the highest open interest for the weekly series while 17300-17500 call options witnessed the addition of short positions. Market participants are advised to keep a close watch on the support range of 16900-17100. If the index shows any signs of bouncing back from this support range then one can look for some contra-buying opportunities, but if this support does not hold then one can look to stay on the sideline for the time being.