Data remains Optimistic

Our markets have been consolidating within a range for the last few weeks. In the January series so far, Nifty has formed a support base in the range of 17750-17800 where we have witnessed buying interest, but pullback moves have seen selling pressure at higher levels. 

Although Nifty has formed a short-term support base in the range of 17750-17800, it is witnessing selling pressures on pullback moves and it is yet to cross the ’20 DEMA’ hurdle since mid-December. The global cues for the equity markets are positive as we have seen US markets showing a pullback move from their support zones while the other emerging markets too are trading with a positive bias. The Dollar Index has corrected recently with no signs of upmove yet and the INR too has appreciated recently which are a positive sign. The CPI and IIP data released last week too were positive and the results declared by IT giants too did not disappoint market participants. Thus the overall data remains optimistic, but the only factor which restricted the market was the selling by FIIs. They have sold equities in the cash segment this month and have been sellers in the futures segment too. In cash segment, they have sold equities over Rs. 18000 crores so far in this month while they have been on the short side in the index futures as well with a ‘Long Short Ratio’ around 40 percent. On the other hand, the Client section has been trading with a positive bias as 60 percent of their positions are on the long side. Also, if we look at the options segment, the option writers added positions in 18000-18100 call options and thus the derivatives data too hints at resistance in this range.

The immediate support is placed in the range of 17750-17800 which would be made or break level. On the flipside, the ’20 DEMA’ resistance is seen around 18070 and a move above the same could then lead to a trended move towards 18200/18325/18450 in the short term.