Markets opened on a negative note amid geopolitical tensions

The increased geopolitical tensions over the weekend led to nervousness in equity markets globally. Hence, our markets too started trading for the week on a negative note. The broader markets too showed weakness and the Nifty ended the day just above 19500 with a loss of over seven-tenths of a percent.

Post the modest recovery towards the end of the last week, we again saw a negative momentum in the markets, led by the global geopolitical tensions. The global markets have already been going through a corrective phase due to factors such as rising US bond yields and Dollar Index, and such news flows further dampened market sentiments. We already have been pointing towards the negative FII flows in the cash segment and their recent short formations in the index futures segment which resulted in the recent corrective phase. Majority of their positions are still on the short side and there are no signs of reversal yet. They had about 73 percent of their index futures positions on the short side, which has increased from the start of the series. On the other hand, the Client segment has formed long positions in this recent dip and has about 60 percent long positions. In the options segment, 19500 has high open interest in the coming weekly series, while the open interest is scattered in 19600-19800 call options. 

The index could trade within a broad range in the short term with immediate support placed in the 19500-19450 range and major support around 19300. On the higher side, 19675 and 19770 are the important hurdles which need to be surpassed for any positive trend to set in.

The broader markets also seem to be losing momentum as the midcap and the small cap names are witnessing profit booking. Short term traders are advised to avoid aggressive trading here and wait for any reversal in the data. A breakout beyond the above mentioned levels could then lead to a short term directional move and hence, traders should be watchful on these levels.