- Vodafone Idea (Vi) shares surged nearly 10 percent on May 24 following upgrade by UBS.
- At 9:30 am, Vi shares were trading 5 percent higher at₹14.75 on NSE.
Share Surge
- UBS upgraded Vi from 'Neutral' to 'Buy', raising target price from₹13.10 to₹18.
- brokerage sees potential 70-80 percent rally in Vi stock ahead.
UBS Upgrade
- UBS anticipates relief measures like AGR reduction or equity conversion due to government's objective of maintaining three viable private telcos.
- target price of₹18 is based on 50 percent probability of AGR dues waiver.
Potential Relief Measures
- Analysts believe that 50-75 percent of AGR dues could be waived for Vi.
- Complete waiver of AGR dues could raise DCF value to₹24 per share, compared to₹12 without waivers.
AGR Dues Impact
- Vi's annual government payments will be over $5 billion from FY26 onwards, including $2 billion for AGR & $3 billion for spectrum.
- UBS highlights Vi's leverage to potential relief, suggesting attractive risk-reward ratio.
Financial Projections
- Stock market anticipates 15-20 percent mobile price increase in next 1-2 years.
- Vodafone Idea follow-on public offer (FPO) is closing soon, with Bharti Airtel & Reliance Jio focusing on ROIC over market share gains.
Market Expectations
- UBS maintains 'Neutral' ratings on Bharti Airtel & Indus Towers but increases their target prices.
- Bharti Airtel's target price is raised to₹1,430 from₹1,310.
- Indus Towers' target price is increased to₹355 from₹220.